Overall:
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| outlet | ev_wtd_brier | unwtd_brier | states_correct |
|---|---|---|---|
| economist (backtest) | 0.0319445 | 0.026912 | 49 |
## [1] 0.02332638
| outlet | ev_wtd_brier | unwtd_brier | states_correct |
|---|---|---|---|
| Linzer | NA | 0.0038000 | NA |
| Wang/Ferguson | NA | 0.0076100 | NA |
| Silver/538 | NA | 0.0091100 | NA |
| Jackman/Pollster | NA | 0.0097100 | NA |
| Desart/Holbrook | NA | 0.0160500 | NA |
| economist (backtest) | 0.0289317 | 0.0187647 | 51 |
| Intrade | NA | 0.0281200 | NA |
| Enten/Margin of Error | NA | 0.0507500 | NA |
## [1] 0.02752745
| outlet | ev_wtd_brier | unwtd_brier | states_correct |
|---|---|---|---|
| economist (backtest) | 0.0803814 | 0.0566662 | 47 |
| 538 polls-plus | 0.0928000 | 0.0664000 | 46 |
| 538 polls-only | 0.0936000 | 0.0672000 | 46 |
| princeton | 0.1169000 | 0.0744000 | 47 |
| nyt upshot | 0.1208000 | 0.0801000 | 46 |
| kremp/slate | 0.1210000 | 0.0766000 | 46 |
| pollsavvy | 0.1219000 | 0.0794000 | 46 |
| predictwise markets | 0.1272000 | 0.0767000 | 46 |
| predictwise overall | 0.1276000 | 0.0783000 | 46 |
| desart and holbrook | 0.1279000 | 0.0825000 | 44 |
| daily kos | 0.1439000 | 0.0864000 | 46 |
| huffpost | 0.1505000 | 0.0892000 | 46 |
## [1] 0.03360938